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You are invited to take part in live online debate. Two industry experts will discuss the use of creaming curves, field size distributions and base rates in petroleum exploration. Alexei Milkov will use his Lundin case study (Milkov, 2017) to demonstrate how statistical base rates,when applied with no prior knowledge of the particulars of an exploration program, can be used to successfully predict the outcomes of portfolio drilling. Kevin Schofield will use the same statistical data, -conditioned by some geological knowledge of the exploration areas and company’s strategy to show that there is utility in “splitting” the base data by play or basin when analyzing the drill-out of a portfolio (Schofield, 2020). Discussion with the live audience will help formulate the best practice on using historical exploration data to predict future exploration success and the outcome of a drilling campaign, and highlight the issues of unconscious bias/heuristics in the analysis of data.
We will provide a pre-read to the registrants including PDF of the paper by Milkov (2017) and the link to the comment on that paper by Schofield (2020).
Moderator: Katya Casey
No requirements to show.
Get familiar with pre-read material
Ticket price US$ 25.00
Registration closes 24 hours prior to the event